By KYIV. May 6 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in the Russian offensive campaign assessment on May 5.
Wagner Private Military Company financier Yevgeny Prigozhin released a series of videos on May 4 and 5 announcing that Wagner will withdraw from Bakhmut on May 10 unless Wagner receives necessary supplies and launched particularly acerbic and emotional attacks against the Russian military command, it said.
Prigozhin’s palpable desperation in the videos suggests that the Russian Defense Ministry has likely deprioritized Bakhmut and shifted operational focus elsewhere in the theater in ways that may seriously compromise Wagner’s ability to operate effectively. Wagner has not ceased efforts to completely capture Bakhmut despite reduced access to ammunition and other necessary supplies, however.
If Wagner does withdraw, then it will likely need Russian Defense Ministry’s equipment to protect and facilitate the retrograde.
“The Russian military lack the reserves needed to man positions Wagner might abandon in Bakhmut, moreover,” the ISW said.
“The massive losses suffered by Wagner in Bakhmut for the sake of tactical gains, as well as the overall shift of the Russian military towards a more cautious posture preparing for defensive operations, appears to be offering Ukrainian forces opportunities for fruitful counterattacks in various areas of the front,” the institute said, adding that “Ukrainian forces appear to be seizing some of these opportunities.”
