By KYIV. Oct 28 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if active hostilities with the Russian occupiers continue until the middle of 2024, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the country will decrease (under a pessimistic scenario with a blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tonnes per 2023 (40% less compared to 2021), and to 52.5 million tonnes in 2024 (38.7% less).
According to the NBU inflation report for October, the key factor in forecasting crop volumes will be the availability of crop exports from Ukrainian seaports.
Thus, under the scenario of the continuation of Russian aggression until the middle of 2023, it is expected that the total harvest of grains and legumes in 2023 will be 57 million tonnes, provided Ukraine has full access to agricultural exports through its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tonnes in the event of their blockade by Russia.
Similarly, if the war continues until the middle of 2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest 62 million tonnes of grains and legumes in 2024 under the condition of free maritime exports, and 52.2 million tonnes if its port infrastructure is blocked.
At the same time, the National Bank predicts the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2022 at the level of 52.5 million tonnes.
The bank recalled that in 2019 Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, in 2020 it was 64.9 million tonnes, in 2021 it was a record 85.7 million tonnes since the country’s independence.
