By KYIV. Nov 1 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The level of the shadow economy in 2021 grew by 2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2020 and amounted to 32% of GDP, and two methods out of four showed an increase (electrical and monetary), while two showed a decrease (the "public expenses – retail turnover" method and the method of enterprises’ loss-making operation), according to the website of the Economy Ministry with reference to preliminary calculations.
"A slight increase in the level of the shadow economy occurred against the background of "shock" increases in world prices for raw materials (energy resources and agricultural products), which prompted economic entities to reduce the risk of losing limited resources in the conditions of an increase in production costs," the department stated in the Shadow Economy. General Trends report for 2021.
At the same time, the periodic quarantine restrictions of 2021, although they restrained the development and recovery pace of most types of economic activity, no longer created significant obstacles.
According to the ministry, two of the four methods of estimating the level of the "shadow" recorded an increase in the level of the shadow economy during the specified period: the electrical method – by 3 percentage points, up to 27% of GDP, the monetary method – by 2 percentage points, up to 33% of GDP.
The ministry said the increase in the level of the "shadow" according to the electric method was maintained at the level of increased demand for energy resources in the conditions of increased activity, mainly by metallurgical and machine-building enterprises.
The growth of the "shadow" according to the monetary method occurred against the background of the gradual increase in the cost of financing for business and the population against the background of the NBU’s increase in the refinancing rate and the growth of cash turnover, the rate of expansion of which remained significant: 12.6% since the beginning of the year.
