By KYIV. Nov 23 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (July-June) exports 12.5 million tonnes, which is 30.5% less than in 2021/22 at 18 million tonnes, while a similar last season, the amount was 25 million tonnes.
This forecast was made by the grain market analyst of the Ukragroconsult consulting agency, Maryna Marynych, during the international online conference "Ukrainian exports – how to get access to the sea?" on Wednesday.
According to her, in 2022/23, a significant decrease in the wheat harvest is expected compared to the previous season – by 41%, to 18.1 million tonnes from 32.1 million tonnes, corn – by 40.6%, to 27 million tonnes from 42 .1 million tonnes.
Marynych also said that the production of corn and barley in Ukraine is declining due to weak demand for these crops from China.
"Less-expensive crops may remain at previous levels. Buckwheat this season has already shown an increase in acreage, so next season its production may remain at a consistently high level," the analyst said.
In turn, in the current year, sunflower oil exports are expected to decrease by 4.4%, to 4.3 million tonnes from 4.5 million tonnes in 2021/22, with a decrease in its production by one third, to 11 million tonnes from 16.5 million tonnes. The key factor in its export will be the possibility of export through Ukrainian seaports within the framework of the Istanbul grain agreements.
According to Marynych, the key trends in the grain market in 2022 were the ability of the buyer to dictate their terms to the seller, the inability of market participants to plan their work in the long term, the appearance of additional losses and costs at each stage of agricultural production.
In 2023, the main trends will be the transformation of strategies in the agricultural sector from increasing yields to reducing costs, reducing the impact of weather patterns in agriculture compared to other factors, as well as increasing investment in logistics and storage of agricultural products.
According to Marynych, a return to the strategy of increasing yields will begin in 2025. At the same time, one should expect an increase in the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian agro-processing industry, and by 2027 it will be accompanied by an increase in interest in waste-free and environmentally friendly production, various green initiatives.
