By KYIV. Dec 1 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Business Activity Expectations Index calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fell to 42.7 in November from 44.9 in October and continued to remain below the neutral level, as evidenced by the results of a survey of enterprises published by the National Bank Ukraine on Thursday.
"In November 2022, the index was 42.7, down from 44.9 in October. Ongoing hostilities, continued damage to critical infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, rising production costs, and falling household income have worsened the nearest-future economic expectations of all of the surveyed sectors. This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index, which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from the forced break in March–May 2022," the NBU said.
"Industrial companies reported a more negative economic outlook on the back of destroyed production facilities and infrastructure, the sector’s index being 44.1 in November, compared to 45.8 in October. Respondents downgraded their expectations for the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, including export orders. At the same time, expectations for the amount of unfinished products were less pessimistic than in the previous month," it said.
"Fiercer fighting and falling household income worsened the economic outlook of trading companies in November, as the sector’s index dropped to 45.2, down from 48.9 in October. Respondents downgraded their expectations of their trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale. In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected an increase in their inventories/stocks of goods for sale. Trading companies expected weaker growth in the cost of goods purchased for sale and reported intentions to cut their trade margins," it said.
"Disrupted supply chains and rising production costs worsened the economic outlook of services companies, as the sector’s index moved to 40.0, down from 42.2 in October. Respondents reported dimmer expectations for the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and the amount of services that are being provided," according to the report.
"Construction companies slightly softened their negative views of their economic performance in November, the index being 41, up from 38.2 in October. Respondents also softened their expectations about their construction volumes and the number of new orders. With contractors becoming more available, respondents declared intentions to increase purchases of contractor services. Although remaining below the neutral level, expectations for purchases of raw materials and supplies improved noticeably," the report reads.
This survey was carried out from November 3 through November 23, 2022. A total of 432 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 45.4% are industrial companies, 27.5% services companies, 22.9% trading companies, and 4.2% construction companies; 30.1% of the respondents are large companies, 31.7% medium companies, and 38.2% small companies.
