By KYIV. Dec 26 (Interfax-Ukraine) – In 2022, the fertilizer market of Ukraine fell by about 40-55% – from 4.75 million tonnes to 2-2.9 million tonnes, it reached its bottom in early summer and began to recover quickly, wrote the director of corporate communications at Group DF, Oleh Arestarkhov, in a column for Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, in 2022, the revenue of farmers and effective demand for fertilizers decreased significantly. The main reasons were the increase in selling prices for fertilizers due to high gas prices, the reduction in sown areas by 14-16% due to hostilities and land mining, direct losses associated with the destruction of warehouses, the export of grain by the invaders and the theft of agricultural equipment by them, as well as export restrictions on sales.
According to the representative of Group DF, the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers in Ukraine, although the market for consumption of ammonium nitrate has decreased from 1.8 million tonnes to 600,000-1 million tonnes, this fertilizer is still in the greatest demand in the country.
Arestarkhov noted that a very large reduction in consumption – almost twice – is expected for complex fertilizers due to a significant shortage of phosphorus and potassium. This is due to the blocking of fertilizer supplies from Belarus and the closure of sea supplies.
The specialist estimates a drop in the consumption of ammonium sulfate to 210,000-250,000 tonnes from 490,000 tonnes last year, carbamide-ammonium nitrate – to 400,000-600,000 tonnes from 1.3 million tonnes, urea – to 330,000-410,000 tonnes from 1.12 million, NPK, NP, DAP – to 620,000-660,000 tonnes.
He clarified that an important new global trend affecting the structure of fertilizer consumption on the world market is a significant drop in carbamide prices in the second half of the year, which reduces the attractiveness of ammonium nitrate, which has a lower nitrogen concentration. According to Arestarkhov, according to some data, about 120,000 tonnes of urea from all over the world have accumulated in the port of Constanta (Romania) today, in fact making it a new European hub where traders buy urea at the most affordable price without being tied to a specific manufacturer. However, this trend has not affected Ukraine so far: having clear logistical advantages and fairly acceptable domestic gas prices, Ukrainian producers have maintained carbamide production, offering it to Ukrainian consumers at a competitive price.
