By KYIV. Jan 13 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Agrain Agricultural Holding estimates the harvest of main crops for 2023 in Ukraine at 50-60 million tonnes, including 30-35 million tonnes of grains and 20-25 million tonnes of oilseeds, the press service of the group of companies has told Interfax-Ukraine.
This estimate is lower than the forecast for this year of 67.5 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, announced by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) in November, but significantly higher than the forecast of 40 million tonnes by the owner of the Prometey grain trading company Rafael Goroyan given to Interfax-Ukraine.
In turn, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimated the grain harvest (without oilseeds) for this year at 51.5-57 million tonnes.
According to the Agrain press service, this year a number of factors that are somehow connected with the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine will have a negative impact on the volume of harvested crops.
"A 50-60% decrease in fertilizer application, significant unharvested corn fields, lack of funding and the need for significant savings will lead to the fact that the expected yield will decrease depending on the region and crop by about 10-30% compared to the average yield of previous years. The fall in yields may also be due to a decrease in acreage and a change in the structure of crops," the press service of the holding said.
According to the press service, the solvency of Ukrainian agricultural producers is still not high enough, although the opening of the grain corridor since August 2022 has somewhat improved the situation.
"However, land logistics is still difficult: transportation costs have increased 3-5 times and do not provide the profit from exports that is necessary to create a full agricultural cycle," the press service of Agrain said.
