By KYIV. Dec 8 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The National Bank of Ukraine notes the negative impact of Russia’s energy terror on GDP, predicting its somewhat deeper fall this year and more sluggish growth next year.
"Relative to GDP this year, the fall is likely to be a little deeper than expected in October forecasts. Next year, even under our baseline, relatively optimistic scenario (designed for effective protection of energy facilities and prompt recovery of the system), GDP growth will be very sluggish and much lower than the 4% that we assumed in the October forecast," NBU Deputy Governor Serhiy Nikolaychuk said at a briefing in Kyiv on Thursday.
At the same time, he noted that all three scenarios of the impact of Russian shelling of the energy system of Ukraine, considered by the NBU, carry additional inflationary pressure, which will be the result of an increase in production costs, a shortage of certain types of products, an increase in their cost due to the transition to generators and disruption of technological processes.
At the same time, Nikolaychuk admitted that inflation would be partially restrained by the fall in consumer demand.
Nevertheless, in all three scenarios, according to him, one should also expect a certain deterioration in the situation with foreign trade due to the loss of export capacities and an increase in import needs.
"We will monitor the situation over the coming weeks, and at the end of January, in our new updated forecast, we will publish the full scenario, which we will consider the baseline, taking into account the consequences of energy terror and other factors," Nikolaychuk summed up.
