By KYIV. Dec 16 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The forecasted gross harvest of grain crops in Ukraine in 2023 may be 34 million tonnes, which is 37% less than in 2022 and 60% less than in 2021, while the oilseeds crop is expected to reach 19.3 million tonnes, which is 13% more than in 2022 and 15% less than in 2021.
As reported on the website of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) on Friday, such a reduction in the grain harvest was caused by a decrease in the sown area under them next year by 45%, to 8.7 million hectares.
The reasons for the reduction in the grain harvest next year will be a decrease in the total sown area, a change in the structure of crops in favor of oilseeds and a decrease in the yield of grain crops.
UCAB said that out of 28.4 million hectares cultivated in 2021, as of December 2022, 24.6 million hectares of land (86% of the entire territory) are located in the controlled territory of Ukraine, of which it is impossible to carry out agricultural work on another 3.8 million hectares due to due to their proximity to the front line, their contamination with mines and shells, etc. In addition, the end of the sowing campaign of winter crops showed a significant reduction in sown areas – in 2022, 3.8 million hectares of winter crops were sown, which is 43% lower compared to 2021.
UCAB said that the reason for this trend is the limited ability to export crops, expensive logistics and, as a result, a significant difference in crop prices across regions.
"Regions that are territorially close to seaports and borders with the EU have a higher price for agricultural products compared to regions in the north and east of our country. Thus, in Zakarpattia, the price of 1 tonne of corn with VAT is UAH 6.800, and in Sumy region – UAH 4,900. However, even in the western regions, the price is unprofitable. Therefore, proximity to the border with the EU and operating ports determines the ability of the respective regions to continue grain production," the association said in a statement.
In turn, in the next 2023, there will be an increase in the area under oilseeds due to their higher marginality compared to grain crops and a significant increase in the cost of grain logistics this year.
"The price of oilseeds is 2 times higher than the prices of grain crops in the world market. According to preliminary estimates, the sown area under grain crops in 2023 will amount to 8.7 million hectares, which is 22% less than in 2022 and 45% less than in 2021 At the same time, sown areas under oilseeds are projected at 9.7 million hectares, which is 32% more than in 2022 and 9% more than in 2021. For the first time, sown areas under oilseeds will be more than under grains," UCAB said in the report.
In addition, next year the average yield will decrease depending on the region and crop by 10-30% compared to the average yield of previous years due to a reduction in fertilizer application by 50-60%, significant volumes of corn left in the fields of the 2022 crop, shortage financing of the agro-industrial complex and the need for significant savings in resources.
UCAB said that, taking into account the given gross production volumes and domestic needs of Ukraine, the export potential of grains and oilseeds in the 2023/24 marketing year (July-June) will be about 35 million tonnes, or 3 million tonnes per month. For comparison, in 2021/22, the export potential was at the level of 85 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, or 7 million tonnes per month.
