By KYIV. Sept 18 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The macro-economic forecast of the Ministry of Economy, which forms the basis of the draft state budget 2024, assumes a sharp improvement in the security situation from the second half of next year and, as one consequence, an acceleration of economic growth to 5% in 2024 and 7-7.5% in 2025-2026.
“Ukraine’s further economic development depends on the duration and active phase of military operations… Thanks to the military successes of Ukrainian defenders, a significant reduction in security risks is expected from the second half of 2024, which will have a positive impact on the indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2025-2026,” the ministry said in the document.
According to the forecast dated mid-June of this year, inflation (at the end of the year) will decrease to 10.8% next year, to 7% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026.
Other estimates include a decline in the unemployment rate from 18.8% this year to 10.8% in 2026.
When projecting the receipts, receipts from the National Bank are expected to increase in 2025 to UAH 103.9 billion from UAH 17.7 billion in 2024, with a subsequent reduction to UAH 15.4 billion.
