By KYIV. Jan 18 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine compared to the same period last year in December 2023 slowed to 2.6% from 3.5% in November, 6.4% in October and 11.1% in September, primarily due to a decrease in real gross value added (GVA) in agriculture by 37.6% due to the high harvest in December 2022, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“This result was worse than we expected, and therefore our assessment of the year is now worse than before: real GDP grew by 3.9% in the fourth quarter and by 4.9% for 2023 as a whole,” commented on this result IER leading expert Oleksandra Betliy.
The institute pointed out that real GDP in December was almost 27% less than the pre-war December 2021 figure.
IER added that the results of livestock production also turned out to be lower in the last month of last year than in December 2022.
The growth rate in the processing industry, according to IER estimates, increased from 14% to 18%, primarily due to the low base effect. Trade indicators also grew, while in metallurgy the situation was worsened by the shutdown of ferroalloy plants.
The institute added that electricity production in December 2023 increased by 8% compared to December 2022.
It estimates that output in the mining industry also increased by 8% due to increased production of iron ore and natural gas, while production of construction materials fell and real gross value added (GVA) in construction fell by 16% due to less financing of infrastructure projects, a high December-2022 base and low volumes of housing construction.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy estimated GDP growth in 2023 at 5%, which is lower than 5.5% for 11 months, and expects the economy to grow by 4.6% this year.
At the end of October, the NBU improved its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 from 2.9% to 4.9%, and in 2024 – from 3.5% to 3.6%, but with a high probability, it admits that the economy grew last year by more than 5%.
