By KYIV. Sept 4 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has updated its estimate of the potential 2023 harvest, increasing it by another 3.7 million tonnes to 80.5 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, which is higher than last year’s figures of 73.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, the press service of the association reported.
The increase in the forecast for this year’s harvest is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields than expected, although it was sown less than last year by almost 2 million hectares, the UGA said.
According to the report, the estimate of the wheat harvest in 2023 has improved – from 20.2 million tonnes to 22 million tonnes (in 2022 it was 20.2 million tonnes, and in 2021 – record 33 million tonnes). Potential wheat exports in 2023/2024 MY may amount to about 16 million tonnes, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season the transitional balances amounted to 4.4 million tonnes.
The estimate of the barley harvest in 2023 has also been increased – from 5.2 million tonnes to 5.8 million tonnes (in 2021 – 10.1 million tonnes, and in 2022 – 5.8 million tonnes), and potential exports in 2023/2024 MY can be expected to be 3 million tonnes. Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved somewhat – from 26.9 million tonnes to 28 million tonnes (in 2021 – 37.6 million tonnes, and in 2022 – 27.3 million tonnes), while exports may amount to about 22 million tonnes.
The sunflower harvest in 2023 is expected to reach 13.9 million tonnes (in 2021 – 16.9 million tonnes, and in 2022 – 11.1 million tonnes), and potential exports may amount to 500,000 ne. Sunflower oil processing can reach 13.2 million tonnes.
The UGA estimates the rapeseed harvest in 2023 at 4.1 million tonnes, while exports in 2023/2024 MY are expected to reach 4 million tonnes; soybeans – 4.8 million tonnes, and potential exports – 3.3 million tonnes.
According to the forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could potentially amount to almost 49 million tonnes. Last season, which ended on June 30, 2023, according to UGA, exports reached 58 million tonnes.
The UGA emphasized that it would be possible to export such volumes in the new season if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, as well as if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, is improved and cheaper.
“The world has already become convinced that exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the industry association explained.
