By KYIV. Sept 15 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The state budget deficit of Ukraine in 2024 is envisaged at 20.4% of GDP, including for the general fund at 19.6% of GDP, according to an explanatory note to the government draft state budget for 2024.
“According to calculations, the forecast volume of public debt, calculated in national currency, will amount to UAH 8.184 trillion and will amount to 104.6% of GDP. State-guaranteed debt will amount to UAH 476.672 billion and will amount to 6.1% of GDP,” the government said in the document.
Taking into account the structure of borrowing this year and its forecast for next year, by the end of 2024 the share of public external debt could reach 80%.
According to it, the draft state budget is based on a forecast of real GDP growth for the next year of 5%, an estimate of nominal GDP of UAH 7.825 trillion and an average annual exchange rate of UAH 41.40/$1.
The deficit cap of the state budget is set at UAH 1.594 trillion, which is 20.7%, or UAH 416.8 billion less than the government estimates the deficit for this year.
It is assumed that the deficit will be financed almost entirely through external borrowings, since privatization revenues are planned at UAH 4 billion, and internal borrowings will be equal to payments to repay the internal debt – UAH 421.6 billion.
Ukraine’s total public debt in January-July 2023 grew by 19.3% to a new all-time high: in U.S. dollars to $132.92 billion, in hryvnias to UAH 4.861 trillion, which is 76.3% of the forecast Ministry of Economy of this year’s GDP. The share of external debt was 68.3%.
The IMF, as part of the first review of the EFF extended fund facility with Ukraine at the end of June, significantly improved the forecast for the growth of public debt this year – from 98.3% of GDP to 88.1% of GDP, including by revising its estimate at the end of last year from 81.7% of GDP to 78.5% of GDP.
In its inflation report at the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine expected public debt to grow this year from 78.4% of GDP to 84.6% of GDP, next year to 96.6% of GDP and in 2025 to 98.2% of GDP.
