By KYIV. Dec 5 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Ukrainian fuel market is in turbulence for several months due to the need to restructure the European market due to G7, Australian and EU restrictions on Russian oil prices at $60 per barrel and other restrictions related to sea transportation of oil of Russian origin, director of the A-95 consulting group Serhiy Kuyun says.
"We will face two or three months of turbulence until the European market adapts first to oil sanctions, then to petroleum product sanctions. In the meantime, it looks like we were the first to feel these sanctions. The question is not even the price, but the availability of the product. Yes, we have every opportunity to bring, but the main thing is to have something," he wrote on Facebook on Sunday.
Kuyun dwelled on the current situation in the main directions of fuel supply to Ukraine, pointing out that, in particular, Bulgaria completely stopped exports due to the uncertainty of the further operation of the Lukoil refinery in Burgas, and in Romania, there are delays of tankers due to weather conditions, repair of reservoirs in the port of Constanta, and blocking of the pier due to suspicions of the Russian origin of diesel fuel, in addition, rumors are spreading about the shutdown of Lukoil’s Petrotel refinery due to sanctions.
At the same time, the Italian market is experiencing turbulence due to the nationalization of the largest Lukoil refinery ISAB in Sicily, and in Turkey, Ukrainian companies are abandoning the STAR refinery diesel due to insufficient frost resistance, and there is also a lack of free shipments in the port of Opet.
At the same time, there are no offers for sale in Greece, and Poland has a limited resource, and also disrupts delivery schedules due to the congestion of the railways, in particular due to the increase in coal transportation.
"There are problems common to all. Russian oil is being replaced by other grades, which are mostly lighter. That is, the selection of middle distillates – diesel and jet fuel – is less. Namely, these are the most popular positions in Europe," the expert explained.
At the same time, he pointed out that there are positive aspects – an increase in production of gasoline, with which the situation on the market is much better.
At the same time, Kuyun noted that "this period just needs to be passed," as Ukraine went through a much more difficult stage of market restructuring in the spring, when 100% of pre-war fuel sources had to be replaced.
According to him, Europe will have to replace much less – approximately 40%, but, according to the expert, although this is also a problem, the situation with the replacement of Russian gas by Europe, where it has succeeded quite well, is much more complicated than the current situation with petroleum products.
