By KYIV. Oct 31 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Wind generation in Europe is demonstrating great volatility, falling sharply on Sunday. In Sweden, for example, wind turbines provided less than 1% of electricity demand on Sunday, down from 65% on Saturday. In Poland, their contribution fell to 4% from 18% the day before.
The weather forecast on Monday promised low wind speeds, which will also reduce wind generation potential.
Gazprom’s gas transit request through Ukraine is unchanged from previous days and months.
The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, or GTSOU, has accepted a booking from Gazprom today to transport 42.4 million cubic meters of gas through the country, unchanged from Sunday, data from GTSOU show.
Capacity was requested only through one of two entry points into Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System, the Sudzha metering station. A request was not accepted through the Sokhranivka metering station.
After exceptionally warm weather in late October, the temperature track in the region returned to near average long-term values ahead of the start of November.
At the end of October, the spot price of gas in Europe fell to its lowest level since April 2021 due to the abnormal heat. The day-ahead contract at the TTF hub in the Netherlands was down to $272 per thousand cubic meters, but the contract for Monday delivery already costs $356. November futures rose to $1128.
European LNG terminals operated at about 60% capacity in October, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicate. At the same time, capacity was below 60% for half the month (it even dropped below 52%). In September and August, the regasification capacity utilization rate was at 59%.
Wind power generation in Europe unexpectedly dropped to 12% of the total energy mix on Sunday (and this despite the fact that total energy demand is already down over the weekend). In the first six days of last week, the contribution of wind turbines was 19%, according to data from WindEurope.
The Nord Stream pipeline is completely shut down due to a number of sanctions issues with equipment maintenance. In addition, at the end of September, two strings of Nord Stream and one of Nord Stream 2 suffered explosions near the Danish island of Bornholm.
Europe continues to inject gas into underground gas storage facilities, with the average level of reserves reaching the targeted 80% at the end of August, since when the pace of injection has slowed. European storage typically transitions from net injection to net off-take around October 20.
Inventories in UGS facilities have risen to 94.34%, up 0.22 percentage points from October 29, the last reporting date, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Over 100 bcm of active gas have accumulated in UGS facilities in absolute terms.
Gas inventories in UGS facilities currently exceed 80% in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain.
Gas stocks at the Incukalns UGS facility in Latvia are the lowest in the EU and are stuck at 57%. This UGS facility is responsible for reserve gas supplies to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Finland.
The United States’ injection rate has fallen for the third consecutive week, with less than 1.5 bcm of gas injected over the last reporting week, as at October 21, the lowest in the past ten weeks, following an average of 3.2 bcm (from 2.9 to 3.7 bcm) the previous five weeks.
U.S. gas companies have ramped up off-season injection owing to the end of the air conditioning period and the scheduled maintenance shutdown until October 18 at the Cove Point LNG plant. However, there will likely be decreasingly less available gas to replenish reserves because of rising exports and gas consumption domestically.
The current inventory level is below 71%, which is substantially below inventory at UGS facilities in Europe, and in Russia, which has over 90%.
UGS inventories in the U.S. are now 9.2% above the five-year minimum, according to the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration. Current inventory lags 5.5% behind the five-year average.
