By KYIV. Nov 11 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecast for Ukraine’s economy in 2023 to 4.5% from 1-3%, as it continues to show remarkable resilience and recent economic developments point to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery.
“However, growth is expected to soften to a range of 3-4% in 2024 as the war continues, and downside risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high,” the report says.
Previously, the IMF predicted Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 by 3.2% and its acceleration to 6.5% in 2025.
“The war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the population and the economy as attacks on critical infrastructure and air strikes continue countrywide. Furthermore, Russia’s termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and destruction of ports have impeded Ukraine’s exports. Despite this, macroeconomic and financial stability have been maintained, thanks to prudent policymaking as well as steady and timely external support,” Chief of the IMF Mission in Ukraine Gavin Gray said.
“The Ukrainian economy continues to show remarkable resilience and further signs of stabilization as recent economic developments point to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in 2023 and a substantial disinflation, amid strong reserves and a stable foreign exchange market,” he said.
As reported, the NBU at the end of October improved the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth this year from 2.9% to 4.9%, and next year from 3.5% to 3.6%, reducing it for 2025 from 6.8% until 6%.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November, the government improved its estimate of GDP growth this year from 2.8% to 5%, but worsened it for 2024 from 5% to 4.6%.
