By KYIV. Nov 17 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The macro-forecast and assessment of Ukraine’s economic losses are necessary to review in connection with the latest missile attacks, First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
"The Ukrainian economy, without taking into account the consequences of October 10, the consequences of yesterday’s missiles, is already minus 30%, so the Ministry of Economy will have to review this macro forecast by the end of the year," she said at the Kyiv International Economic Forum on Thursday.
"So far, it is difficult to answer," the First Deputy Prime Minister added to the Interfax-Ukraine’s clarifying question about what the new worsened forecast could be.
According to her, losses in the Russian economy this year will be only about 4.5% approximately, which means the need for further tightening of sanctions.
As reported, after a better-than-expected third quarter, the Ministry of Economy of the country spoke about the possibility of improving the forecast for a fall in GDP in 2022 from 33.2% to about 30%. However, then at the end of October, when the draft state budget was finalized for the second reading, this figure was improved only to 32%.
In addition, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2%.
In the middle of October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its assessment of the economic recession this year from 33.4% to 31.5%, but at the same time worsened its forecast for GDP growth next year from 5.5% to 4%.
At the same time, Svyrydenko said last week that Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in October increased the rate of GDP decline to 39% compared with October 2021, which is lower than the 35% in September-August.
"According to the results of the first nine months, we estimate the fall in GDP at about 30%. However, in the event of continued attacks, and as a result, blackouts, GDP may fall lower," the ministry’s press service quoted her as saying.
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko this week suggested that Ukraine’s GDP would fall by 33-35% this year.
