By KYIV. Dec 20 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The Ukrainian economy continues to grow even despite the fact that last month Polish truckers blocked ground border crossing points for road cargo, but the growth rate in November this year decreased compared to November last year to 4% [±2%], such preliminary estimates were published by the Ministry of Economy.
“As a result, for January-November 2023, economic growth is estimated at 5.5% compared to the corresponding period last year,” the ministry said on Wednesday.
First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said that in November, the almost month-long blocking of the Polish-Ukrainian border by Polish truck drivers was the main negative factor for exporting manufacturers and manufacturers dependent on imported raw materials when delivering products by road.
At the same time, according to her, the work of the Ukrainian sea corridor created by the Ukrainian Navy made it possible to partially compensate for losses in the economy.
“First of all, producers of agricultural and metallurgical products, metal ore mining enterprises and railway carriers took advantage of this. According to our estimates, positive factors in November somewhat outweighed the balance of influence on GDP, and as a result, according to preliminary operational estimates of the Ministry of Economy, there was an increase in GDP by level of 4%,” Svyrydenko said.
Previously, the Ministry of Economy estimated the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in October this year at 10.5% (±2%) compared to October last year, while in September this figure was 9.1% (±2%). As a result, the ministry reported an acceleration of economic growth in January-October 2023 to 5.5% from 5.3% in January-September 2023.
However, according to new graphical data, the Ministry of Economy has significantly revised the monthly dynamics of GDP growth for July-October of this year: if previously these ministry recorded continuous positive dynamics from approximately 8.7% to 9.1% in July-September and 10.5% in October, then now the estimate for July and October is approximately less than 4%, while for August it is more than 10%, and for September it is more than 15%.
The Ministry of Economy also recalled that annual inflation in November fell to 5.1%, which is even less than in some EU countries. Thus, according to Eurostat, in November, annualized consumer inflation in the Czech Republic was 8%, Hungary – 7.7%, Iceland – 7.4%, Slovakia/Romania – 6.9%, Poland – 6.3%, and Croatia/Bulgaria – 5.5%.
“Currently, the moderate dynamics of consumer price growth is comparable to the level of inflation in European countries whose economies are not experiencing the shocks of war. This is additional evidence of the integrity and resilience of the Ukrainian economy. The current inflation trend and the factors shaping it indicate that expectations for low inflation are justified,” Svyrydenko said.
At the end of October, the NBU improved its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth this year from 2.9% to 4.9%, and next – from 3.5% to 3.6%, worsening it for 2025 from 6.8% to 6%.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November, the government improved its estimate of GDP growth this year from 2.8% to 5%, but worsened it for 2024 from 5% to 4.6%.
