By KYIV. May 8 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects $42.2 billion in international financial assistance in 2023 and its reduction to $26.4 billion in 2024 and to $16.8 billion in 2025, according to the estimates given in the Inflation Report of the central bank.
In 2023, an increase in the volume of international assistance is expected. And its decrease in 2024-2025 will reflect the further restoration of the internal resource base of the budget and the reduction of its deficit as security risks decline, the NBU said.
At the same time, lower receipts from international partners will be partially offset by growth in export earnings, the central bank said.
The NBU recalled that last year international financial assistance to Ukraine amounted to $32.2 billion, including $18 billion in grants.
Ukraine in January-March of this year received almost $11 billion, of which $3.7 billion came in grants.
According to NBU estimates, in the second quarter of this year, international financial assistance will amount to $13.8 billion, after which it will decrease to $9.7 billion in the third quarter, and to $7.8-7.7 billion in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.
The National Bank recalled that the main assumption of the forecast is the end of the war from the beginning of 2024.
The central bank said that if the war lasts until mid-2024, then economic growth next year will remain at this level – 2% instead of the NBU’s forecast of 4.3% under the baseline scenario.
At the same time, partly the negative effects of a higher intensity and a longer duration of the full-scale war will be offset by large amounts of international assistance: in the negative scenario of the IMF, the financial requirements for the four years of the EFF program guaranteed by international partners will increase to $140 billion compared to $115 billion in the baseline scenarios, the National Bank said.
