By KYIV. Dec 14 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The likelihood of an attack by Belarusian forces on Ukraine is unlikely, despite a sudden check of Belarusian military readiness on December 13, according to a December 12 report by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine. It involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively," according to the report.
It is also reported about the transfer of equipment to landfills closer to the border with Ukraine. "These deployments are likely part of ongoing Russian information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ISW has written at length about why Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future," analysts say.
ISW reports that Ukrainian officials continue to believe that as of December 13, Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine. "The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated on December 13 that the situation in northern Ukraine near Belarus has not significantly changed and that Ukrainian authorities still have not detected Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus. The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service reported that the situation on the border with Belarus is under control despite recent Belarusian readiness checks," the ISW said.
