By KYIV. Dec 9 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin about Russia’s role as the only "guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty" are additional indicators that the Kremlin is creating conditions for a protracted war aimed at destroying Ukrainian sovereignty, according to a report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for December 8.
“The Kremlin’s deliberately inconsistent messaging is part of a persistent information operation intended to mislead the West into pushing Kyiv to negotiate and offer preemptive concessions,” the report says.
At the same time, analysts note that Putin may deliberately distance himself in his rhetoric from the unrealistic demands of Russian nationalists regarding the military actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
“The Kremlin likely has not abandoned its maximalist objectives in Ukraine despite Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s first-time acknowledgment that Moscow’s current territorial objective is to fully seize four partially occupied Ukrainian regions. Peskov, however, reiterated that the Kremlin is still pursuing its ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ objectives in Ukraine, which confirms that Russia is still pursuing regime change (‘denazification’) and the elimination of Ukraine’s ability to resist future Russian attacks or pressure (‘demilitarization’). The Kremlin’s objectives, in other words, continue to remain unchanged from those set following the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv,” the ISW says.
Analysts note that recent statements by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, as well as Putin’s position on the Russian Federation regarding nuclear weapons, including the policy of non-use first, confirm the previous assessment that Russian officials do not intend to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, and they are rattled within the framework of an information operation aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine.
ISW estimates that Ukrainian forces are probably preparing to take advantage of the frozen terrain during the winter of 2022-2023 and further operational successes of Ukraine depend on the ability of Ukrainian forces to continue consecutive operations without interruption.
It is reported that Russian troops have strengthened positions in Svatove area and conducted counterattacks in Kreminna area against the background of ongoing counter-offensive operations of Ukrainian troops in the east of the country. Also, Russian troops continued offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut and Avdiyivka-Donetsk, strengthened security measures in the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia.
