By KYIV. May 8 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Valery Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, analysts at the Institute for the Study War (ISW) believe.
” Kadyrov’s threats to transfer his forces to Bakhmut may have blackmailed the Russian military command into allocating ammunition to Wagner mercenaries. Kadyrov likely supported Wagner’s blackmail efforts against the Russian military command in order to reestablish his position within the circle of power in the Kremlin,” according to the report.
At the same time, analysts said the successful joint efforts of Kadyrov and Prigozhin in such blackmail indicate that Gerasimov does not actually control all Russian forces in Ukraine.
“The Russian military command appears to be increasingly delegating responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane. Gerasimov’s degraded abilities to control his commanders will likely further limit the Russian military’s ability to conduct coherent operations involving different areas of responsibility,” analysts said.
ISW believes that Putin is unlikely to remove Gerasimov from the post of theater commander for reputational reasons, and therefore the event will have long-term consequences for theater command. It is noted that the issue with the chain of command is unlikely to be resolved by the occupiers anytime soon, and these issues are likely to affect how Russian forces respond to potential Ukrainian counter-offensives.
It is reported that the occupiers on Sunday continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk in Kharkiv region and south of Kreminna in Luhansk region, and also, as of May 7, achieved some territorial success in Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations on Avdiyivka-Donetsk front. At the same time, the Russian occupation authorities continue to plan and implement forced evacuations from Zaporizhia region.
