By KYIV. Dec 17 (Interfax-Ukraine) – A spokesman for U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has sufficient military capability to retake the Russian-occupied peninsula of Crimea, NBC reported on its website, citing two U.S. officials familiar with the case, whose names are not named.
At the same time, according to them, some officials are concerned any large-scale offensive that threatens Russia’s hold on the peninsula could push Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons.
NBC reports that the late November Ukraine briefing to some members of Congress included discussion of the reasons Ukraine will continue to need U.S. weapons and equipment for the foreseeable future. Biden’s spokesman confirmed Ukraine’s ability to retake Crimea, two officials said, but said it was not its immediate goal.
U.S. officials believe the Ukrainian military will move northeast, not south, into Crimea in the coming months. "A lot would have to happen militarily first before Ukraine could begin a real offensive to retake Crimea," a U.S. official said.
Some administration officials, however, are privately discussing what could happen if Ukraine launches an offensive into Crimea, and U.S. officials are concerned Putin could feel backed into a corner and use a dirty bomb or other nuclear device. "Putin may react more strongly to Crimea," a U.S. official said.
The three U.S. officials stressed that the U.S. sees no sign that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb right now.
In turn, a representative of the National Security Council declined to comment on this issue.
NBC notes that a real fight for Crimea would include heavy battlefield losses on both sides, and taking it back would be a daunting task for Ukrainian forces because of the heavy Russian military presence and the difficult geography. The Ukrainians would have better prospects attacking other Russian targets on the mainland in eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops are more exposed, experts and a U.S. official said.
Some Biden administration officials are already concerned about continued Ukrainian strikes inside Russia that could provoke a stronger response from Putin and spread the conflict to Ukraine’s neighbors. While administration officials believe Ukrainians carried out the three recent drone strikes against Russian bases, they don’t think they were made with drones provided by the U.S.
U.S. officials concede that Ukraine has taken a series of escalatory actions against Russia without informing the U.S. or Western allies in advance. A U.S. official said Ukraine does make its own battlefield decisions, but the White House is confident that Ukraine would not begin an extensive operation like re-taking Crimea without notifying the U.S. in advance.
Nuclear tensions with Russia spiked in October, but they have since calmed considerably, the officials said, and there are no U.S. intelligence assessments that Putin plans to use a nuclear weapon at this time.
